![]() ![]() SHOP NOW Fooled By Randomness Book Summary When considering a past event in politics, investments and business, look at the costs of the alternative rather than the outcomes. ![]() Life is nonlinear which leads to chance events, so luck plays a big role. We are probability blind, meaning we cannot make decisions without emotions.We tend to generalize, going from particulars to general, which lowers awareness of the randomness at play.When looking at the past, mistakes can only be assessed based on information available up to the point of the event and do not help you predict the future because a new past was created.We make choices with emotions and not rationality. ![]() Individual probabilities only have meaning when you know the magnitude of their outcomes.Many people are just mainly lucky due to randomness, but they experience attribution bias by assigning success to a precise reason. ![]() Outside of casinos and textbooks, probability is an acceptance of the lack of certainty in knowledge and development of strategies for dealing with ignorance.We judge people by their performance and wealth without realizing the extent luck has played.We see past events as less random than were in reality and look for causality. ![]()
0 Comments
Leave a Reply. |